Alcohol consumption and Suicide in Belarus , 1980 – 2005

Background: Suicide is one of the leading external causes of death in many countries and its rates have increased globally over the last decades. The level of alcohol consumption and the suicide rates in the former Soviet republic Belarus range among the highest in the world. Aim: To estimate the aggregate level effect of alcohol on suicide rates in Belarus. Method: Trends in alcohol consumption per capita and suicide rates from 1980 to 2005 were analyzed employing autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) time series analysis. Results: The results from the time series analysis indicated the presence of a significant association between alcohol consumption and blood alcohol concentration (BAC) positive suicide rates, while changes in the number of BAC-negative suicides were not related to fluctuations in alcohol consumption levels. The analysis suggests that an increase of alcohol consumption per capita by 1 litre would result in an 8.8% increase of the total suicides rate and 11.1% increase in BAC-positive suicides. Conclusion: this study suggests that the overall level of alcohol consumption is an important determinant of suicide rates at the aggregate level. The findings from the present study have important implications for suicides prevention indicating that a restrictive alcohol policy could be considered as an effective measure of suicide prevention in countries where rates of both alcohol consumption and suicide are high.